Sign in, say "hi", ... and be welcomed.

Safety Statistics for Various Sports

Postby Bob Kuczewski » Fri Dec 20, 2019 11:29 am

There have been a few articles linked on the Oz Forum discussing safety statistics. This particular article makes an attempt to compare the safety of a number of sports activities based on the probability of death in the next 1000 hours of participation. It also compares these activities to the probability of death in commercial aviation and from any cause in the next 1000 hours at any age. Here's the link:

       https://chessintheair.com/the-risk-of-d ... t-we-love/

I would guess that many of these numbers could easily be off by a factor of 2 or more. In fact, this is pointed out by several of the commenters and admitted in the author's reply. However, even with these difficulties, I think It's a good overview of relative risk and provides a reasonable framework for discussions. Here are the estimates grouped by relative safety along with the data sources:

The-Risk-of-Dying-Doing-What-We-Love-1-1.png

Those numbers are also presented on top of a plot showing the risk of death in the next 1000 hours as a function of age. Here's that chart:

Risk-of-dying-in-sports-by-age.png
Risk-of-dying-in-sports-by-age.png (107.84 KiB) Viewed 384 times

Note that several sports (including base jumping) were too dangerous to fit on the chart.
Join a National Hang Gliding Organization: US Hawks at ushawks.org
View my rating at: US Hang Gliding Rating System
Bob Kuczewski
User avatar
Contributor
Contributor
 
Posts: 6504
Joined: Fri Aug 13, 2010 2:40 pm
Location: San Diego, CA

Re: Safety Statistics for Various Sports

Postby Craig Muhonen » Fri Dec 20, 2019 12:23 pm

In Switzerland, you are considered so crazy, to strap boards on your feet and jump off a mountain, that if/when you get caught in an avalanche, they put a red push pin on the map where you might be, and say "see you in the spring". Searching for avalanche victims is not high on their list.

A phrase for "dangerous sports", may be... "you beaucoup dien cai dau".

Craig
"grow brave by reflection". And invincible with written words.
Craig Muhonen
User avatar
Contributor
Contributor
 
Posts: 329
Joined: Tue Nov 05, 2019 9:58 pm
Location: The Canyons of the Ancients

Re: Safety Statistics for Various Sports

Postby Bill Cummings » Wed Mar 25, 2020 5:40 pm

Did HG/PG just get more hazardous?
Ask yourself if going to the hospital during the corona virus outbreak
for a fracture or a break is less desirable than going
last year at this time.
Ask yourself if tying up the emergency room or first
responders while a line of people struggling to breathe
are waiting their turn would make you uncomfortable
in front of the mobile TV NEWS CAMERA.
Bill Cummings
User avatar
Contributor
Contributor
 
Posts: 2976
Joined: Wed Jul 13, 2011 6:20 pm
Location: Las Cruces NM 88005 (Region 4)

Re: Safety Statistics for Various Sports

Postby Bob Kuczewski » Thu Mar 26, 2020 3:18 am

Some perspective from the current Coronavirus death statistics:
     (data from https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus)











































CountryDeathsDeaths/MillionDeaths/Million
San Marino21619
                                        ...                                                        
Italy7,503124
                                    ...                                    
Spain3,64778
                                ...                
Iran2,07725
                         
Netherlands35621
                     
France1,33120
                    
Switzerland15318
                  
Belgium17815
               
Cayman Islands115
               
Andorra113
             
Luxembourg813
             
UK4657
       
Iceland26
      
Denmark346
      
Channel Islands16
      
Sweden626
      
Curaçao16
      
Austria344
    
Portugal434
    
Norway143
   
USA1,0323
   
S. Korea1313
   
Martinique13
   
Germany2062
  
Ireland92
  
Slovenia52
  
Bahrain42
  
Guadeloupe12
  
Panama82
  
Cyprus32
  
Montenegro12
  
Greece222
  
Ecuador292
  
China3,2872
  
Albania52
  
Mauritius22
  
Cabo Verde12
  
Lithuania41
 
Canada361
 
North Macedonia31
 
Hungary101
 


The worse case so far is San Marino with 619 deaths per million in population. And that's probably a statistical anomaly due to its small sample size. Italy is probably a more representative count with about 124 deaths per million.

Using very round numbers, USHPA has about 10,000 members, and it seems that there's about 1 death per year. That would be 100 out of one million every year.
Join a National Hang Gliding Organization: US Hawks at ushawks.org
View my rating at: US Hang Gliding Rating System
Bob Kuczewski
User avatar
Contributor
Contributor
 
Posts: 6504
Joined: Fri Aug 13, 2010 2:40 pm
Location: San Diego, CA

Re: Safety Statistics for Various Sports

Postby Bob Kuczewski » Thu Mar 26, 2020 3:30 am

Bill Cummings wrote:Did HG/PG just get more hazardous?
Ask yourself if going to the hospital during the corona virus outbreak for a fracture or a break is less desirable than going last year at this time.

Yes, it's much less desirable. You got your work done just in time!!!   ;)

Bill Cummings wrote:Ask yourself if tying up the emergency room or first responders while a line of people struggling to breathe are waiting their turn would make you uncomfortable in front of the mobile TV NEWS CAMERA.

Good point. I wouldn't want to be this guy today:

Torrey_PG_Pilot_Hospital.png
Torrey_PG_Pilot_Hospital.png (372.67 KiB) Viewed 42 times
Join a National Hang Gliding Organization: US Hawks at ushawks.org
View my rating at: US Hang Gliding Rating System
Bob Kuczewski
User avatar
Contributor
Contributor
 
Posts: 6504
Joined: Fri Aug 13, 2010 2:40 pm
Location: San Diego, CA

Forum Statistics

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 30 guests

Options

Return to Hang Gliding General